Evidence-based modelling for Africa’s climate, trade and growth.
AICTEM builds integrated analytical tools — multi-region input–output systems, computable general equilibrium models, climate modules and spatial infrastructure models — that turn complex data into decisions for African policymakers.
Four integrated diagnostic programmes
Three integrated diagnostics combine documentary evidence with the CDCGE / SDCGE engines (GTAP database multi-region CGE), a land-use carbon module and the DICE climate model — joined by an Infrastructure programme built on spatial economic and power-sector models and spatial analytics.
Climate
Integrated assessments of each country’s climate position, emissions profile and the economics of adaptation and mitigation to 2045.
View 52 reports →Growth
Identification of the binding constraints to inclusive growth and structural transformation, built on the SDCGE engine with a PATH solver.
View 50 reports →Trade
Analysis of trade structure, competitiveness and AfCFTA integration using multi-region input–output accounting and CGE simulation.
View 47 reports →Infrastructure
Integrated diagnostics of transport, power and digital infrastructure, built on spatial economic and power-system models with settlement-level access analytics.
View 52 reports →Continental synthesis reports
Four flagship Africa-wide syntheses draw together AICTEM’s national Climate, Growth, Trade and Infrastructure diagnostics.
Africa Climate Status Report
A continental synthesis of 51 national Climate Status assessments spanning 52 African economies across seven climate-challenge regions, integrating documentary climate evidence with the CDCGE computable general equilibrium model (GTAP database CGE coupled with a DICE-type climate module) and a land-use carbon module. It assesses Africa’s climate position, emissions structure and the economic effects of adaptation and mitigation to 2045, finding that planned, water- and infrastructure-led disaster-risk-reduction packages deliver most of the protection and must be publicly financed and front-loaded. On mitigation it shows that carbon pricing is effective and, with revenue recycling, low-cost — while the trustworthy signal is the ranking, regional pattern and approximate magnitude of effects rather than calendar-dated forecasts.
Read more →Africa Structural Growth & Transformation Report
A continental synthesis of forty-nine country studies that pair a structural–dynamic CGE (SDCGE) model with a multi-regional input–output diagnostic built on the GTAP database, locating Africa’s central problem as growth without structural transformation. It maps the structure of African economies across ten dimensions and simulates eight forward-looking growth-scenario families — crops, livestock, mining, manufacturing, infrastructure, education, health and services — to 2040 across all forty-nine economies. Three results recur with striking regularity: manufacturing is the highest-GDP growth lever in 47 of 49 countries, agro-processing is the single highest-return intervention in 44 of 49, and services and infrastructure are the strongest levers for welfare — the GDP–welfare divergence that runs through the continent.
Read more →Africa Trade & Structural Synthesis
A continental trade and structural synthesis drawing on forty-nine country diagnostics, built on multi-regional input–output analysis (GTAP database) and the SDCGE engine, that maps export structure, import dependence, the domestic-versus-foreign value-added split of exports and network centrality across African economies. It reads the model results against the AfCFTA, agro-industry, critical-mineral beneficiation and the infrastructure deficit to show where deeper regional integration and value-chain upgrading can raise competitiveness. Manufacturing and agro-processing emerge as the highest-return levers for moving African exports up the value chain while strengthening intra-African trade linkages.
Read more →Africa Infrastructure Diagnostic
A continental synthesis of AICTEM’s national Infrastructure Diagnostic reports, combining gridded spatial-equilibrium assessments of road connectivity, city-network models of welfare-maximizing road investment, least-cost power-system models and settlement-level power and digital access analytics. It draws together where Africa’s transport, power and digital gaps bind, and shows that the highest returns arise where these gaps coincide in space — making the case for spatially coordinated, bundled infrastructure investment.
Read more →Interactive web applications
AICTEM exposes its Trade, Growth, Climate and Infrastructure modelling streams through open-source web applications. Built on the same engines and data that produce our reports, they link open data, modelling engines and interactive dashboards to put on-demand scenarios into the hands of policymakers in real time.
Explore our web applications
Explore the continent
Four thematic maps show where Climate, Growth, Trade and Infrastructure reports have been implemented across Africa — click any country to open its reports.
Open the coverage maps Download by country